IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Georgia St.
Sun Belt
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+4.4	#106
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	78.2	#25
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+3.3	#90

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+1.1	#136

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.5%	1.7%	0.2%
Top 6 Seed	1.1%	3.5%	0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid	28.7%	39.1%	25.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	1.7%	5.1%	0.8%
Average Seed	12.4	11.3	13.0

.500 or above	86.9%	95.9%	84.1%
.500 or above in Conference	90.7%	96.0%	89.0%
Conference Champion	38.1%	47.7%	35.1%
Last Place in Conference	0.6%	0.2%	0.8%

First Four	0.8%	1.6%	0.5%
First Round	28.3%	38.1%	25.2%
Second Round	7.2%	12.3%	5.6%
Sweet Sixteen	2.4%	4.0%	1.9%
Elite Eight	0.6%	1.3%	0.3%
Final Four	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%
Championship Game	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Tech (Away) - 23.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 1	1 - 2
Quad 3	6 - 3	6 - 6
Quad 4	10 - 2	16 - 7

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	63	@ Georgia Tech	L	74-82	24%
Nov 30, 2020	183	@ Mercer	W	79-76	60%
Dec 04, 2020	164	@ Charlotte	W	75-73	57%
Dec 16, 2020	183	Mercer	W	82-73	78%
Dec 21, 2020	162	College of Charleston	W	79-71	75%
Jan 01, 2021	175	@ Coastal Carolina	W	86-84	58%
Jan 02, 2021	175	@ Coastal Carolina	W	86-84	58%
Jan 08, 2021	281	@ Troy	W	83-75	76%
Jan 09, 2021	281	@ Troy	W	83-75	75%
Jan 15, 2021	175	Coastal Carolina	W	89-81	75%
Jan 16, 2021	175	Coastal Carolina	W	89-81	75%
Jan 22, 2021	194	@ Appalachian St.	W	78-74	62%
Jan 23, 2021	194	@ Appalachian St.	W	78-74	62%
Jan 29, 2021	187	South Alabama	W	80-71	78%
Jan 30, 2021	187	South Alabama	W	80-71	77%
Feb 05, 2021	194	Appalachian St.	W	81-71	79%
Feb 06, 2021	194	Appalachian St.	W	81-71	79%
Feb 11, 2021	203	Georgia Southern	W	87-77	80%
Feb 13, 2021	203	@ Georgia Southern	W	84-80	64%
Feb 19, 2021	281	Troy	W	86-72	88%
Feb 20, 2021	281	Troy	W	86-72	87%
Feb 26, 2021	187	@ South Alabama	W	77-74	61%
Feb 27, 2021	187	@ South Alabama	W	77-74	60%
Projected Record						16 - 7	13 - 5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Sun Belt Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.1	0.4	2.2	5.0	9.5	10.0	7.5	3.4		38.1	1st
2nd											0.0	0.5	2.5	5.6	6.0	3.3	1.2	0.2			19.3	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.3	2.1	4.6	3.4	1.5	0.2	0.0				12.1	3rd
4th										0.2	1.7	3.8	2.5	0.7	0.0						9.0	4th
5th									0.1	1.1	2.7	1.9	0.4	0.0							6.2	5th
6th								0.1	0.7	2.2	1.6	0.3	0.0								5.0	6th
7th							0.0	0.5	1.5	1.3	0.2		0.0								3.6	7th
8th						0.0	0.2	0.9	1.1	0.2	0.0										2.5	8th
9th				0.0	0.0	0.1	0.7	0.8	0.2	0.0											1.9	9th
10th				0.1	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.2	0.0												1.3	10th
11th		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0													0.8	11th
12th	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1															0.3	12th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.9	1.6	2.5	3.5	5.1	6.6	8.7	10.5	12.0	12.5	13.0	11.3	7.8	3.4			Total

Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	3.4		3.3	0.2
17-1	97.2%	7.5		6.9	0.6
16-2	89.0%	10.0		8.2	1.8	0.1
15-3	73.0%	9.5		6.2	2.9	0.4	0.0
14-4	39.9%	5.0		2.3	2.0	0.6	0.1	0.0
13-5	18.5%	2.2		0.6	1.0	0.5	0.1	0.0
12-6	4.0%	0.4		0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.6%	0.1				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	38.1%	38.1		27.5	8.6	1.7	0.3	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	3.4%		98.7%	95.5%	3.3%	8.9		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0		0.0		72.1%
17-1	7.8%		94.3%	89.1%	5.2%	11.9				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.6	0.9	1.9	2.2	0.9	0.1		0.4		47.3%
16-2	11.3%		76.4%	72.5%	4.0%	12.9						0.0		0.0		0.1	0.2	0.6	1.9	3.2	2.2	0.5	0.0	2.7		14.4%
15-3	13.0%		48.8%	47.4%	1.4%	13.5											0.0	0.1	0.8	2.2	2.2	0.9	0.1	6.6		2.7%
14-4	12.5%		19.0%	18.5%	0.5%	14.0												0.0	0.1	0.6	0.9	0.7	0.1	10.1		0.6%
13-5	12.0%		5.0%	4.9%	0.1%	14.6													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	11.4		0.1%
12-6	10.5%		0.7%	0.7%		15.3															0.0	0.0	0.0	10.4
11-7	8.7%																							8.7
10-8	6.6%																							6.6
9-9	5.1%																							5.1
8-10	3.5%																							3.5
7-11	2.5%																							2.5
6-12	1.6%																							1.6
5-13	0.9%																							0.9
4-14	0.5%																							0.5
3-15	0.2%																							0.2
2-16	0.1%																							0.1
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		28.7%	27.5%	1.2%	12.4		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.7	1.0	2.0	5.3	8.6	6.4	2.3	0.4	71.3		1.7%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.8%	100.0%	5.0	4.4	2.8	13.0	20.6	24.7	17.6	5.7	1.4	7.4	1.0	1.2	0.1